Freaky Fast Outlook (AAPL, CGC, CHGG, COST, CRWD)

Now on to our positions in the Freaky Fast Folio and what we will be looking at in the week ahead. First up is AAPL. Apple posted one of the greatest quarters in the history of American business this past week. Their power and positioning in the market is so grand that they have the ability to voluntarily close stores down, as they did this quarter, and still achieve massive growth. Personally, I don’t trade AAPL much because it’s usually pretty boring, but I did have two shares from around $350 and I added a 3rd share at $404.

The chart is beautiful. I’ll sell if it closes below Friday’s $403.30 low, and I’ll probably start taking profits around $450. I will be completely out at my profit target of $470, unless it gets there quickly, which it very well could.

On to the weed. CGC is a train-wreck of a stock to trade, but it does have some big runs up from time to time, and it’s actually in a fairly good spot for one of those runs if it can break this $20 level.

We’ve finally broken the 200-day moving average (purple) and it likely has $27 in its future IF it can break out. That’s a big if. This is a speculative stock and management has historically been shaky, but the new management team does appear as if they aren’t actively using the product while at work. That’s a start. They report earnings on the 10th. I’m playing this one with an Oct $20 call, and I’ll probably sell an August $25 against it next week sometime. This one is gambling. It’s a calculated gamble, but it’s still gambling. Don’t play with money you can’t afford to lose.

CHGG has been a nice position for me. We’ve been in this digital textbook provider since around $60, and it’s been a pretty easy stock to trade around your position with, taking profits on a portion of your shares on the big up days and buying them back on reversals from the 21-day ema (yellow).

I currently only own 5 shares, because I did some of that profit-taking on Thursday and Friday. This one reports earnings Monday after the close. I still see great things for this stock, but I am looking to unload some positions and given how much it’s moved higher already, I’ll likely sell the rest of my shares on Monday before the close.

I played COST with a diagonal options spread, which means I own a $340 call option that expires in October and I helped pay for it by selling a $350 call option that expires August 21. This means I profit on any move up to $350 between now and that day. I paid $265 for that spread and currently hold $375 in profit, so that’s been a nice call. I entered this one on the day it broke through the trendline, seen below.

It’s acting fine, sort of consolidating right now. But I am not interested in giving back much of my profits on this one. The old high from 4/16 is acting as a support right now, so that’s good. But I am not liking this move underneath my moving averages on the hourly chart.

That needs to fix itself on Monday or I’ll probably take my profits. The thing that makes that tough is that I’ve got another $500 or so in potential profits if this does hit my $340 price target by August 21 (and another $500 after that if it should get to $350). As you can see in the profit/loss chart of my position below, diagonal spreads are a tremendous tool, very powerful. Hopefully this can get back to the high 320s Monday so I can safely hold on.

CRWD is acting well again, after a few weeks off.

You can see the little short term trendline on my daily chart above. The stock tried to break through it and go lower on 7/24, but was immediately supported by the 50-day moving average, and we’ve been up every day since. $125 is in its near future, with potential for a lot more if it continues. Looks great!

As always, questions or comments are welcome below. I’ll be back later with the outlook for our other positions.

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Google photo

You are commenting using your Google account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s