Freaky Fast Outlook (RDFN, TMHC, TTGT, VIPS, XOM, ZNGA)

I came across RDFN back in May when searching for the new townhouse my wife and I bought in July. It’s a very useful app and website, and with all the people looking to move right now, it’s very well positioned for growth.

My positions in this stock were purchased when it crossed $30, so we’ve solid gains in this one as well. Because I believe in the company and use the product, I was more comfortable staying with it through its earnings report last week. Their results were excellent, but with the stock already having run so far, it barely moved in reaction. We’ve got a small position in the Freaky Fast Folio, and I’ve also got a position in my retirement account. In addition to that, I’ve got the Aug $50/$60 call spread, which could still prove very profitable if the buying resumes in this name and we get the run up to $57 that I was anticipating.

As with anything I own, we’d be selling on a break of the 50-day line, if not sooner. In reality, I rarely hold things below their 200-hour moving average line, which usually corresponds to roughly a 25-day moving average. Breaking that rule is how you end up with positions like the one we have in DKNG. But I love this company, too.

Next up is TMHC. I had predicted the housing surge that the Rona has caused, but other than RDFN, I never really capitalized on it from a stock perspective. Last week, I really wanted to add a home builder, as the index for them (ITB) was breaking out.

Jim Cramer had the CEO of TMHC on his show last week, and I was very much impressed with her and the story she told about the future of the company. They had just reported earnings, the chart looks excellent and IBD gives them a composite rating of 95. So I did the sheep thing, and bought the day after a Cramer recommendation. You can easily start a position right here, although I’d wait until it trades above Friday’s high. Assuming it does so, it’s well-positioned for a run to $30.

TTGT has low-key been a serious outperformer lately. It never seems to do much, it just goes up every day. We bought this on the highlighted day below, when it broke $30. $40 looks like a foregone conclusion at this point, as it just rallied from support Friday at my 2nd profit target line.

The main thing in the way of them reaching that $40 mark is the fact that they report earnings Wednesday after the close. But unlike some of the other companies we’ve talked about already, TTGT is ranked #2 by IBD in the Commercial Services/Advertising group, behind only the amazing TTD. I know they’ve both run pretty far, but I wouldn’t be inclined to sell TTD if I was in it, and I probably won’t be selling TTGT into earnings either.

That being said, I wouldn’t be at all surprised if it came back down to test the $34.50 area it broke out from on the weekly chart below. If that happens, look for it to bounce off there and buy the bounce.

VIPS has been a wild ride, to say the least. I’m in it from the breakout of the base at $19 on the highlighted day below.

It’s required some nimbleness to hold the position. I’ve sold some shares on all the bearish reversal days, and I’ve added some back on the bullish reversal days. This is just the way the stock seems to trade, and ultimately it adds to your profit if you can handle selling whenever it’s up and buying whenever it corrects. But it can also be a little nerve-wracking. The stock is showing some hope of acting like a normal stock in an uptrend the last few days. Hopefully it can do that for another week, because I’ll likely be selling into earnings next week on the 12th.

For those who are concerned about owning Chinese stocks, VIPS is an online Chinese retailer of clothing.

XOM. Huh. What to say about XOM? I bought a couple of these August $52.5 calls a couple months ago on one of the happy days when it looked like everything was re-opening. Thankfully, we sold some calls against it, got a good run up for a few days and sold some more. Now these calls are worthless. I’m down $205 on the calls I own, but I did bring in nearly $150 from the ones I previously sold against them, so in all, it’s just a normal loser for me, $50-75. We won’t show the chart, it’ll make your eyes bleed.

Z is for ZNGA, the maker of games for your phone. I bought 2 of the Aug $10 calls a couple months back for a grand total of $117. It just hasn’t traded well. It had one nice run up to $10.55 but then just got destroyed one day. There is one big weakness to my trading game that I’d like to improve. I’m a night owl, and I live in Arizona. Getting up at 6:30 is not something that I was built to do. Selling near the highs was never an option for me, because I just woke up one day and the thing was down 10%. The good news is that the impact of missing the first couple hours has been very small. But one of the reasons I am excited about starting this website is that I hope it will cause me to wake up earlier.

Anyways, we’re only down $21 on this. It has earnings after Wednesday’s close and it looks like it wants to run higher into those earnings. When planning an options trade that includes the earnings announcement, you always want to buy it at least a few weeks in advance of that earnings report. As you get closer to the report, people will bid up the prices of all options higher than they realistically should be. That’s why there is still pretty good equity in the ones I have, and if the price even just stays the same as it is now, they will be worth a little more when I sell on Wednesday than they are today.

Alright, that was a lot. That’s it for me for the weekend. Who knows, maybe I’ll be back early tomorrow morning?

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